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Ok. Got itMost importantly, who of the two current frontrunners is likely to be elected president of the ANC? Will it be Cyril Ramaphosa (or CR17 as he is now popularly referred to thanks to social media)? Or will it be Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma? (DZ for the purposes of expediency in this article.) In addition to the individual candidates’ profiles, there are several other factors informing the succession debate. These include the desire for ‘regime change’ opposition parties, developments in the markets, and the question about whether the ANC will retain power in 2019. And if they don’t, the next question is about the outlook in terms of a new ruling party or possibly the advent of a new era of coalition politics.
Secret meetings are surely taking place to strike political deals based on common enemies
What will influence the strategic power balance and potential alliances between those with numbers and a strong support base (DZ), versus those with ‘credibility’ (CR17) in the run-up to the ANC Electoral Conference?
Who will kickstart growth (essential to alleviate poverty) and what is the desired geopolitical outcome?
With CR17 as head of state, we will see a softening of our current strong ties to China and Russia and a reinstatement of a better relationship with the west. Under DZ, it may prove difficult to extricate ourselves from the strategic ties to China and Russia and we are more likely to maintain an ambiguous relationship with the west. Markets, as mentioned above, are more pro CR17, so from a growth point of view, CR17 is likely to provide renewed confidence, the necessary ingredient for economic growth.
If ANC support falls below 50% in 2019, what is the possible outcome?
The ANC needs to tread very carefully ahead of 2019. While DZ or a compromise candidate may be the preferred candidate of the Zuma faction, there is no guarantee that already disillusioned voters will provide sufficient support to the ANC come 2019. An ANC loss in the general election however, heralds the potential for a coalition government. Ironically, this may provide less certainty than a factional ANC-led one. The obvious coalition, despite noise to the contrary, is based on ‘having a common enemy’, in other words, the DA and EFF (and others like the UDM). There is little alignment between the primary two parties that could be involved in a coalition government. As a result, the chances of South Africa in 2019 being a more unstable place than today under a coalition government is high.
What may well happen if CR17 doesn’t win in December, is a fragmentation of the ANC
Some may leave to join the EFF, some may join the DA. But both parties have problems. The DA has racial, ideological and factional issues. While the EFF is currently the least unstable party, it lacks the coastal support base it needs to be a credible national party.
State capture, looting and in-fighting needs to be rectified if we are to have a chance of alleviating poverty
Political battles in the ANC are between angels with horns and devils with halos. What they have in common, is a ‘God complex’. It is also anticipated that the violence in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is likely to escalate, given both the judgment that the ANC leadership in the province are illegitimate (and have been since 2015) and that there are four candidates from the province in the succession stampede. KZN is strategically important to the conference outcome.